Tuesday, January 18, 2011

China believes it will be a long time before the RMB is global currency

Despite criticism of the current system, Mr Hu said he believed it would be a long time before the yuan - or renminbi (RMB) - was accepted as a global currency.
"China has made important contribution to the world economy in terms of total economic output and trade, and the RMB has played a role in the world economic development," he said.
"But making the RMB an international currency will be a fairly long process."
Some economists suggest that China's growth strategy - with its focus on exports and state-led investment - may be incompatible with Mr Hu's currency ambitions.
In order for the yuan to oust the dollar as a global reserve currency, international central banks and investors would need to be able to get their hands on huge amounts of the currency.
Yet neither of the ways in which China could supply the world with more yuan is at all appealing to Beijing, according to Michael Pettis, economist at Beijing University.
He says the country could start running big trade deficits with the rest of the world - just as the US has been doing - and finance them by selling their currency to their trade partners.
Or it could allow foreign investors to pour their money into Chinese financial assets - like shares, bonds or yuan bank accounts - matched by similar Chinese investments in the rest of the world.
But Mr Pettis warns that for the numbers to add up, China would need to do these things on an unprecedented scale, which is likely to be unpalatable to the authorities.
Either of these moves is likely to go with an increase in the yuan's value, making Chinese exporters less competitive.
And they may also fuel speculative asset bubbles in China - something that Beijing has been trying to clamp down on of late.

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