Monday, September 12, 2011

Chinese imports hit record high as trade surplus narrows


Workers at a factory in ChinaChina has been trying to rebalance its export dependent economy to sustain growth


Taken directly from BBC reporting:


China's imports hit a record monthly high in August, indicating a strong domestic demand despite concerns of a global economic slowdown.
Imports surged by 30.2% from a year earlier to $155.6bn (£98bn), government data released over the weekend showed.
Exports rose by 24.5% resulting in a trade surplus of $17.8bn, down from $31.5bn in the previous month.
The data comes at a time when China has been trying to boost domestic demand in a bid to rebalance its economy.
"August's export and import data showed China's economic growth is driven by domestic demand, not external demand and its growth is still very strong," said Li-Gang Liu of ANZ.
Growing demand
China's economic expansion in recent years has seen the rise of a more affluent middle class, with higher disposable incomes.

Start Quote

I expect Chinese export growth to be below 10% in the fourth quarter”
Shen JianguangMizuho Securities Asia
That has led to a growth in domestic demand, which has translated into higher import numbers.
"Growth of the Chinese middle class is well documented and it is something that will continue to drive growth," Kelvin Tay of UBS told the BBC.
Analysts said the recent appreciation in the Chinese currency had also played its part as the purchasing power of consumers had gone up.
The yuan has gained more than 5% against the US dollar in the last 12 months.
"If you had 100 yuan a year ago, you could buy X amount of things, today it is X-plus," he explained.
Global concerns
China's push to boost domestic demand has been driven not only by efforts to rebalance its economy but also by fears that demand from its key markets may dip in the wake of a global slowdown.
While its exports registered robust growth in August, analysts said that things are likely to get tougher.
"The European debt crisis and slowing US growth will be reflected in China's export data in the next few months," said Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities Asia.
A consumer shopping in ChinaChina has said that keeping consumer price growth in check is its top priority
"I expect Chinese export growth to be below 10% in the fourth quarter," he added.
However, some analysts argued that a slowdown in the global economy may fuel a jump in Chinese exports.
They said China's biggest strength in manufacturing has been its low prices and in times of a slowdown, consumers are looking for more affordable goods which could prompt a surge in demand.
"Not many countries can make it as cheap as the Chinese," said UBS' Mr Tay.
Increased lending
Along with a rise in imports and exports, bank lending in China also quickened in August.
Chinese banks lent out 548.5bn yuan ($86bn; £54bn) during the month, more than forecast, despite government efforts to curb credit growth in the country.
China's central bank has raised interest rates five times since October last year and also increased the bank's reserve ratio requirement nine times during the same period in a bid to quell prices.
Data out last week showed the rate of inflation in China eased to 6.2% in August from 6.5% in the previous month.
Analysts said the latest numbers showed that not only were the government's efforts to control inflation working, they were not having the negative impact on growth that many people had worried about.
"All the talk of demand being dented due to credit tightening is far-fetched," Mr Tay said.
However, Mr Tay warned the combination of an increase in lending and a rise in domestic demand may see the central bank raise the cost of borrowing again in a bid to keep price growth in check.
"Based on the numbers that we are seeing, it will be premature to rule out a rate hike," Mr Tay told the BBC.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

China has 5 Billion on-line stores!

In 2010, China's online shopping industry had a turnover of $80bn, and grew 87% year-on-year.
Taobao is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba and the brainchild of founder Jack Ma. It is a free-to-use online marketplace with some 800 million product lines - from food to clothes to technology. 
It boasts 50 million unique visitors a day and is the top destination for three quarters of the country's online shoppers.
"Of course it's quite competitive, because there are hundreds of new stores opening every day on Taobao," says Ms Zhang.
"Considering that I haven't been doing this for that long a time, I need to gain experience and grow my own business step by step."
China's 420 million internet users spend around a billion hours each day online - and last year, 185 million made at least one online purchase.
Across China, online companies large and small are learning how to be effective e-commerce players - or fail like US goliath eBay, which was trounced by upstart Taobao back in 2006.
Online shopping now accounts for more than 5% of China's retail sales, and Taobao's sellers are behind 70% of the country's online transactions.
According to Boston Consulting Group, the volume is expected to increase fourfold by 2015.
In Chinese retail, trust is a rare commodity. There are plenty of fakes online, and buyers are often cursed by scams or shoddy goods. Still, consumer faith in e-commerce stores is remarkably robust.
E-commerce is changing the way Chinese consumers think about shopping: online, it is more social than a hard sell. It's a new engaging experience to savour.
China's consumers have the upper hand like never before - and it's not just because there are more traders at their fingertips than in the local High Street.
That's because, apart from its convenience, online shopping has shifted the balance of power from sellers to buyers.
Yang Jie, HanHan WorldYang Jie built HanHan World through social marketing
Social commerce
HanHan's World sells what one might call chintzy Iphone covers. At its small office the team of three is busy chatting with potential customers via the site's instant messenger application, which also comes with video chat.
Customers can check how much HanHan's World sells and at what cost.
New sites on Taobao that want to compete with HanHan's World and move up the rankings have prove their worth by shifting volume and get good buyer feedback.
"In the beginning we promoted ourselves through product forums," explains Yang Jie, HanHan World's manager. "Due to good quality and our low prices, with barely any profits, we developed rapidly in a short time."
Online shopping in China is more than clicking on the "buy" button. The experience includes exchanging tips with other shoppers, discussing trends, and rating both products and service.
The interaction and communication generates trust.
"The ability of social networking combined with e-commerce or social commerce as I like to call it - where people are able to rate their providers, provide information to other purchasers - that level of experience is really overcoming the big weaknesses," says Duncan Clark, Chairman of BDA (China), an expert on China's e-commerce industry.
"Basically, there is a one-to-one connection being established. And that's breaking through the mistrust barrier if you will. So I think we can learn, actually - the West can learn from some of the developments happening in the Chinese e-commerce sector," says Mr Clark.
DangDang chairwoman Peggy YuDangDang's Peggy Yu bets on the "latecomer's advantage
Latecomers' advantage
That said, even China's big e-commerce retailers, like Amazon look-alike DangDang, don't profess to be great technology innovators.
At its massive warehouse south of Beijing, most of the work is lifting, sorting, stacking, labelling, scanning, boxing, taping - before the trucks arrive to deliver 100,000 packages a day.
In China, the competition is about focusing on how to put the technology to work. This often means duplicating or tweaking existing ideas to get an edge in the market, cheaply and quickly.
"We should take latecomers' advantage," says Peggy Yu, chairwoman of DangDang. "To me that means, taking apart other success business stories and see how business can be conducted more effectively."
In this rapidly expanding, huge market of 600 cities, much of the focus now is on finance and management, and on solving the puzzle of how to deliver a fast reliable service to the regions far away from the eastern seaboard - and then grow market share.
In December 2010, DangDang - China's largest book seller - raised $272m by listing on Wall Street's Nasdaq stock exchange. The money was used to fund an expansion of its product range and establish regional warehousing.
DangDang shelfstackerDangDang's biggest problem is getting the supply chain to connect with its warehouses
But a big headache remains that is beyond the company's control: "I think the supply chain weakness is the biggest bottleneck to e-commerce in China," says Ms. Yu.
"Manufacturers in China are typically local businesses. And their distribution capacity is restricted to a very small region. But DangDang requires suppliers to deliver to our distribution centres throughout the country - so that we can ship to every single customer in the whole of China. And that is a real challenge for suppliers."
It's a fundamental offline problem for e-commerce in China.
Still, investors see China's scale and potential.
Another Amazon-styled mass market retailer, 360.buy, raised $1.5bn in April during a funding round - on top of a $500m investment round last December, that saw US retail giant Wal-Mart taking a stake.
What now, Taobao?
DangDang workerE-commerce in China is growing rapidly
At rival Taobao, these moves raised eyebrows.
Faced with a rapidly changing marketplace and freshly financed challengers with more focused product lines, in June parent company Alibaba split Taobao into three separate companies:
  • eTao, a shopping search engine, to help drive customers;
  • Taobao Mall, a fee-earning "online showroom" for some 70,000 companies, including many leading foreign brands; and, of course,
  • the Taobao marketplace for small sellers like Zhang Qiaoli to grow her fledgling Kitty Lover business - a platform that is free for users, although Taobao earns from adverts.
"I think, Alibaba is going through some growth pains right now," says Duncan Clark. "It's become so large, so fast with Taobao that it's having to seek ways to adjust. And it's not entirely clear yet how they'll emerge."
Some analysts go further and warn that the split could be disruptive.
Alibaba's top managers are not used to criticism. But the group lost a lot of long-held goodwill during what one could describe as founder Jack Ma's "annus horribilis".
First, staff of Alibaba's international business-to-business online market place were caught up in a $6m fraud.
Then came widespread criticism of the transfer of Alibaba's valuable online payment company Alipay to a firm owned by Jack Ma himself. Foreign investors like US firm Yahoo and Japan's Softbank were furious.
Both matters have been resolved, but a bitter taste remains - despite Jack Ma's insistence that he shunted Alipay from Alibaba to comply with new Chinese regulations that bar foreign ownership of any payment company on the Chinese mainland.